brier {verification}R Documentation

Brier Score

Description

Calculates verification statistics for probabilistic forecasts of binary events.

Usage

    brier(obs, pred, baseline, thresholds = seq(0,1,0.1), ... )
       

Arguments

obs Vector of binary observations
pred Vector of probablistic predictions [0,1]
baseline Vector of climatological (no - skill) forecasts. If this is null, a sample climatology will be calculated.
thresholds Values used to bin the forecasts. By default the bins are {[0,0.1), [0.1, 0.2), ....} .
... Optional arguments

Value

baseline.tf Logical indicator of whether climatology was provided.
bs Brier score
bs.baseline Brier Score for climatology
ss Skill score
bs.reliability Reliability portion of Brier score.
bs.resolution Resolution component of Brier score.
bs.uncert Uncertainty component of Brier score.
y.i Forecast bins – described as the center value of the bins.
obar.i Observation bins – described as the center value of the bins.
prob.y Proportion of time using each forecast
obar Forecast based on climatology or average sample observations.

Note

This function is used within verify.

Author(s)

Matt Pocernich <pocernic@rap.ucar.edu>

References

Wilks, D. S. (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Chapter 7, San Diego: Academic Press.

Examples


#  probabilistic/ binary example

pred<- runif(100)
obs<- round(runif(100))

brier(obs, pred)


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