brierSkillScores {ensembleBMA} | R Documentation |
Computes ensemble, logistic, and BMA Brier Skill Scores given observation thresholds.
brierSkillScores( object, ensembleData, thresholds, popData = NULL, ...)
object |
An ensemble BMA model fit for ensembleData .
|
ensembleData |
An ensembleData object giving including ensemble
forecasts, observations, and dates corresponding to object .
|
thresholds |
One or more threshold values with respect to which the Brier Skill Scores will be computed. |
popData |
For ensembleBMAgamma0 objects, there is an additional popData
argument for providing predictors in the logistic regression for probability
of precipitation. The value of popData (if any) used to create object
should be supplied here.
|
... |
Included for generic function compatibility. |
There will be a lot of warnings due to logistic fitting near the extremes.
A data frame giving the ensemble (voting), logistic, and BMA Brier Skill Scores for the specified thresholds.
G. W. Brier, Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Monthly Weather Review, 78:1-3 (1950).
T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery, Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation, Technical Report No. 463R, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, November 2006 (to appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association).
data(prcp) prcpData <- ensembleData( dates = prcp$date, observations = prcp$obs, forecasts = prcp[,c("CENT","AVN","CMCG","ETA", "GASP","JMA","NGPS","TCWB","UKMO")]) ## Not run: prcpFit <- ensembleBMAgamma0(prcpData) ## End(Not run) hist(prcpData$obs) brierSkillScores(prcpFit, prcpData, thresholds = c(0, 10, 50, 100))