predict.TriangleModel {ChainLadder} | R Documentation |
The function is internally used by MackChainLadder
to forecast future claims.
## S3 method for class 'TriangleModel': predict(object,...)
object |
a list with two items: Models , Triangle
|
... |
not in use |
FullTriangle |
forecasted claims triangle |
Markus Gesmann
See Also MackChainLadder
RAA MCL=MackChainLadder(RAA) MCL plot(MCL) MCL[["Models"]][[1]] # Model for first development period summary( MCL[["Models"]][[1]]) # Look at the model stats op=par(mfrow=c(2,2)) # plot residuals plot( MCL[["Models"]][[1]]) par(op) # Let's include an intercept in our model newModel <- update(MCL[["Models"]][[1]], y ~ x+1, weights=1/MCL[["Triangle"]][1:9,1], data=data.frame(x=MCL[["Triangle"]][1:9,1], y=MCL[["Triangle"]][1:9,2]) ) # view the new model summary(newModel) op=par(mfrow=c(2,2)) plot( newModel ) par(op) # change the model for dev. period one to the newModel MCL2=MCL MCL2[["Models"]][[1]] = newModel predict(MCL2) # predict the full triangle with the new model #(only the last origin year will be affected) MCL2[["FullTriangle"]] <- predict(MCL2) MCL2[["FullTriangle"]] MCL2 # Std. Errors have not been re-estimated! # plot the res plot(MCL2, title="Change MCL Model")