verifRank {ensembleBMA}R Documentation

Verification Rank

Description

Computes the rank of verifying observations. relative to the corresponding ensemble forecasts.

Usage

verifRank( forecasts, observations)

Arguments

forecasts A matrix of ensemble forecasts, in which the rows corresponds to locations and times and the columns correspond to the individual ensemble members.
observations A vector of observations corresponding to the locations and times of the forecasts.

Details

The verification rank is used to assess calibration of a forecast ensemble. A more uniform verification rank histogram indicates better calibartion.

Value

A vector giving the rank of verifying observations relative to the correspnding ensemble forecasts.

References

A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and M. Polakowski, Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Monthly Weather Review 133:1155-1174, 2005.

J. M. Sloughter, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and C. Fraley, Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averaging, Monthly Weather Review 135:3209–3220, 2007.

J. M. Sloughter, T.Gneiting and A. E. Raftery, Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using ensembles and Bayesian model averaging, Technical Report No. 544, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, October 2008.

C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter, ensembleBMA: An R Package for Probabilistic Forecasting using Ensemble and Bayesian Model Averaging, Technical Report No. 516R, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, revised 2009.

See Also

ensembleData, pit

Examples

  data(prcpDJdata)

  prcpDJdataVR <- verifRank( ensembleForecasts(prcpDJdata),
                               ensembleVerifObs(prcpDJdata))

  hist(prcpDJdataVR, breaks = ensembleSize(prcpDJdata), xlab = "",
       main = "Verification Rank Histogram")


[Package ensembleBMA version 4.2 Index]