forecast.ets {forecast}R Documentation

Forecasting using ETS models

Description

Returns forecasts and other information for univariate ETS models.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'ets':
forecast(object, h=ifelse(object$m>1, 2*object$m, 10), level=c(80,95),
        fan=FALSE, simulate=FALSE, bootstrap=FALSE, npaths=5000,...)

Arguments

object An object of class "ets". Usually the result of a call to ets.
h Number of periods for forecasting
level Confidence level for prediction intervals.
fan If TRUE, level is set to seq(50,99,by=1). This is suitable for fan plots.
simulate If TRUE, prediction intervals produced by simulation rather than using analytic formulae.
bootstrap If TRUE, simulation uses resampled errors rather than normally distributed errors.
npaths Number of sample paths used in computing simulated prediction intervals.
... Other arguments.

Value

An object of class "forecast".
The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.
The generic accessor functions fitted.values and residuals extract useful features of the value returned by forecast.ets.
An object of class "forecast" is a list containing at least the following elements:

model A list containing information about the fitted model
method The name of the forecasting method as a character string
mean Point forecasts as a time series
lower Lower limits for prediction intervals
upper Upper limits for prediction intervals
level The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals
x The original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).
residuals Residuals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values.
fitted Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

Author(s)

Rob J Hyndman

See Also

ets, ses, holt, hw.

Examples

fit <- ets(USAccDeaths)
plot(forecast(fit,h=48))

[Package forecast version 1.23 Index]